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Is a cold winter on the way?

A flooded field
A flooded maize field in Bolton By Bowland

7 out of the last 14 British winters have been milder than average, with mean temperatures of 5*C. Milder winters often mean wetter winters and rainfall has been recorded as above average across a range of worldwide weather data models.

So, does a run of milder winters mean we are due a cold spell this year? Not necessarily!

In the UK there is a tendency for cold winters to come in clusters but even with good quality worldwide weather prediction systems identifying when those cold spells might occur is tricky.

A number of indicators are used to predict winter weather conditions but at the moment it is reasonable to assume higher than normal levels of rainfall are coming our way, particularly in the early phase of this winter. says “The seasonal models strongly support the idea of it being milder and wetter than average. In fact, the signal for above average levels of precipitation is unusually strong.”

Looking to the later phase of winter and into 2024 there is a good chance of snow as the El Nino weather pattern that occurs every few years impacts on UK weather patterns Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, has been quoted as saying, "El Niño years have a tendency to have a mild wet and westerly start to winter (November to December) and a colder, drier end to winter (January to March) across most of northern Europe."

For the moment the unsettled weather is set to continue in the UK so we’re offering 10% off all Polytunnels, Parts and Accessories until March . Use the discount code "Winter Warmer " at checkout.

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